GENERAL ELECTION: What polls predict for Essex

The latest polling has revealed the Essex constituencies currently held by the Conservatives that could flip at the general election. The model from Ipsos shows the party losing seats to Labour, Reform UK and the Lib Dems.

Nationally the Tories are predicted to win just 115 seats, with Labour on 453. After Tony Blair’s Labour landslide in 1997, John Major’s Conservatives were left with 165 MPs.

If the recent Ipsos poll was repeated on July 4 the Conservatives could be heading for their worst general election defeat in modern political history. Among those Conservatives looking nervously over their shoulder in Essex include those in Chelmsford where the seat is too close to call between Labour Lib Dems and the Tories.

There the Conservatives are predicted to take 31 per cent, Labour 27 per cent and the Lib Dems 29 per cent.

It is also a close race in Basildon and Billericay where Tory chaiman Richard Holden is predicted to take 33 per cent and Labour 38.

However, in Clacton the Conservatives are predicted to lose to Reform UK.

Basildon and Billericay (No clear winner)

  • Con 33 per cent
  • Labour 38 per cent
  • Lib Dem 6 percent
  • Ref 17 per cent
  • Green 4 per cent

Braintree (Conservative hold)

  • Con 36
  • Labour 30
  • Lib Dems 10
  • Reform 19
  • Green 3

Brentwood and Ongar (Conservative hold)

  • Con 36
  • Labour 26
  • Lib Dem 10
  • Reform 20
  • Green 6

Castle Point (Conservative hold)

  • Con 39
  • Labour 30
  • Lib Dem 5
  • Reform 22
  • Green 3

Chelmsford (No clear winner)

  • Con 31
  • Labour 27
  • Lib Dem 29
  • Reform 9
  • Green 3

Colchester (Labour swing)

  • Con 27
  • Labour 38
  • Lib Dem 10
  • Reform 13
  • Green 10

Epping Forest (No clear winner)

  • Con 42
  • Labour 40
  • Lib Dem 11
  • Reform n/a
  • Green 5

Maldon (Conservative hold)

  • Con 40
  • Labour 24
  • Lib Dem 12
  • Reform 19
  • Green 4

Rayleigh and Wickford  (Conservative hold)

  • Con 36
  • Labour 30
  • Lib Dem 10
  • Reform 19
  • Green 4

Rochford and Southend East (Labour swing)

  • Con 30
  • Labour 45
  • Lib Dem 4
  • Reform 14
  • Green 5

Southend West and Leigh (Labour swing)

  • Con 32
  • Labour 44
  • Lib Dem 6
  • Reform 14
  • Green 3

South Basildon and East Thurrock (No clear winner)

  • Con 36
  • Labour 37
  • Lib Dem 5
  • Reform 17
  • Green 4

Thurrock  (Labour swing)

  • Con 28
  • Labour 48
  • Lib Dem 4
  • Reform 14
  • Green 4

Witham  (No clear winner)

  • Con 32
  • Labour 31
  • Lib Dem 6
  • Reform 24
  • Green 6
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Piers Meyler

Local Democracy Reporter